October 07, 2026
Written by Miles Savitz Over the past few weeks, several frontier AI companies publicly cautioned that their own products could pose catastrophic risks. An Anthropic researcher resigned in a viral post accusing the labs of gambling with human lives, while Anthropic’s alignment lead estimated the odds of a global catastrophe at more than 10% within […]
October 01, 2026
Global energy markets remain distorted by geopolitical disruptions, although the pressure is increasingly concentrated on specific fuels and transportation routes. Middle East supply constraints, Russian refinery disruptions, and bottlenecks across major shipping corridors have created an unusually complex physical market. Importantly, the system has avoided a more severe crude shortage partly through demand destruction rather […]
September 21, 2026
Written by Jacob Friedland The 30-year government bond yield reached 5.35% this week, a level not seen since 2007, and the 10-year went back above 5%. Washington has two concrete reasons to stop this. Interest on the national debt cost 931 billion dollars in the first ten months of this fiscal year, up 11% from […]
September 15, 2026
Written by Cynthia Ng, CFA 10-year Treasury yields are close to 5%, yet investor confidence in bonds has rarely seemed lower. For an asset class that has traditionally served as both an income source and a ballast against equity volatility, that disconnect is striking. In our view, today’s headlines are obscuring the bigger picture. The […]
September 02, 2026
Written by Desmond Foo The U.S. Treasury surprised markets on 19 Aug by announcing it will increase the maximum size of its buybacks of longer-dated bonds, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move came after a sharp rise in long-term yields, with the 30-year Treasury yield briefly reaching around 5.34%, […]
September 01, 2026
“If you went on vacation in February and came back to review your portfolio, you would be forgiven for not realizing that we’ve witnessed another war and the largest energy supply chain stress in decades.” We wrote that in mid-May, when global equities were up 10% year-to-date. Since then, we have had another bout of […]
August 26, 2026
Few markets are as underestimated as Europe. The reflexive view is that the region offers little growth, weak returns, and chronic underperformance, now compounded by cheap Chinese competition. Yet the data increasingly challenge that narrative. European equities have been among this year’s better performers, outpacing the S&P 500 since the start of 2025 despite a […]
August 18, 2026
Written by Miles Savitz U.S. AI-related capital spending should total close to $600 billion this year, about 2% of GDP, more than 10% of all business fixed investment. Numbers that large invite an obvious worry: every dollar routed into accelerators, substations, and server halls is one not routed somewhere else. Additionally, much of this AI […]
August 17, 2026
The latest coordinated intervention to strengthen the Japanese yen was unusual in both its scale and structure. Japan deployed $88 billion over two days, while the U.S. Treasury joined the operation by selling euro reserves; an exceptionally rare step outside periods of financial crisis. The message is clear: policymakers have reached their tolerance threshold for […]
August 04, 2026
Written by Cynthia Ng Investors hoping for a quiet summer have instead been reminded that markets and geopolitics rarely take a vacation. The Middle East conflict has re-escalated, semiconductor stocks have wobbled, and high-profile listings have slipped below their IPO prices. Against this backdrop, a question we increasingly hear is whether the US equity bull […]
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